Well, even this very shortened Oscar season has gone on forever. But finally, all the shopping is done we've arrived at Christmas Eve. I should be jaded by now, having religiously followed the Oscars for a decade-and-a-half....but I'm still a giddy kid. Only now I look forward to drinking while I watch the show.
Pay close attention to the ceremony tomorrow night. This year's producers, Bill Condon and Laurence Mark, have done some retooling in an effort to reignite some Oscar excitement. Hugh Jackman is hosting, and he is one of the most fabulous stage performers I've ever seen. If he's allowed to do his thing, he will be an impressive host. But the inclusion of a brand new host is not the only change you can expect to see. Exactly what the changes will be remains unknown. I hear rumblings that certain disreputable outlets are leaking information, which (1) is unfair, and (2) should not be trusted. My Cardinal Rule as a critic is to always go into a film as fresh as possible. I am doing the same with this year's Oscar ceremony.
Another wonderful thing about this year's Big Show: all the uncertainty. Yes, Slumdog will string 'em together. Yes, Ledger is a shoo-in. But outside of that, several races are still up in the air. In fact, even with Slumdog and Ledger as locks, four of the eight major categories are still up for grabs.
Here are our final predictions...and by "final," we of course mean "we can change our minds at least four more times between now and tomorrow at 8pm eastern."
Lady first...
K's OSCAR PREDICTIONS
Best Picture:
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire (No real dark horse...but if there was, it would be Milk)
Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire (The only film that should come close isn't even nominated--The Wrestler)
Best Director:
Will Win: Danny Boyle
Should Win: Danny Boyle, only because Darren Aronofsky wasn't nominated
Best Actress:
Will Win: Kate Winslet
Should Win: Meryl Streep (Pains me to say, because I want Winslet)
Best Actor:
Will Win: Mickey Rourke (Obviously this is the closest race...Sean Penn is the dark horse, and he isn't even that dark)
Should Win: Mickey, Mickey, Mickey
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Penelope Cruz (Dark Horse: Viola Davis)
Should Win: Marisa Tomei
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Heath Ledger
Should Win: Heath Ledger
Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Dustin Lance Black, Milk (Even though there isn't anything original about it...it was based on real life!)
Should Win: Courtney Hunt, Frozen River
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog (Dark Horse: None, and there shouldn't be any)
Should Win: Simon Beaufoy
The rest to come after...
J's OSCAR PREDICTIONS
Best Picture:
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire (Milk is the only possible challenger, but it's not putting up much of a fight)
Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire (The Film of Destiny couldn't be a more perfect winner)
Best Director:
Will Win: Danny Boyle (Just about the surest bet of the night, even moreso than Best Picture)
Should Win: Danny Boyle, the perfect director for the perfect material at the perfect time. It Is Written.
Best Actress:
Will Win: Kate Winslet (-slash-Meryl Streep...is that possible? No, I'm going with Kate, but it's about a 51-49 contest)
Should Win: Meryl Streep (Incredible work from acting's Queen...and she was better than her heir apparent, the Great Kate, this year)
Best Actor:
Will Win: Mickey Rourke (Another tough one, but I'll go out on this limb...Sean Penn is running about 50/50 with the Big Dog)
Should Win: Big Mickey, with loads of respect to Richard Jenkins...and of course, Sean Penn
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Penelope Cruz (Closer than you think: Viola Davis)
Should Win: Marisa Tomei
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Heath Ledger (Um...duh)
Should Win: Heath Ledger, because even though it's easy to get lost in the hype surrounding the film in the context of Ledger's death, this was actually a career-defining, film-defining, genre-defining performance.
Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Dustin Lance Black, Milk (A close race between this one and WALL-E, but I think Black has picked up momentum; but the robot could upset)
Should Win: Andrew Stanton & Jim Reardon, WALL-E (The year's best, most original and wonderful film should win this award going away)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog (Another pre-destined winner)
Should Win: Simon Beaufoy
THE REST...
Foreign Language Film
K: Waltz with Bashir
J: Waltz with Bashir
Animated Feature
K: WALL-E
J: WALL-E
Documentary Feature
K: Man on Wire
J: Man on Wire
Art Direction
K: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (should be Dark Knight)
J: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Cinematography
K: Slumdog Millionaire
J: Slumdog Millionaire
Costume Design
K: The Duchess
J: The Duchess
Editing
K: Slumdog
J: Slumdog
Makeup
K: Ben Button (should be Dark Knight...again)
J: Ben Button
Original Score
K: Slumdog
J: Slumdog (Thomas Newman's work on WALL-E was indeed the year's best, but Slumdog comes in a close second, and will win)
Original Song
K: Jai Ho from Slumdog Millionaire (where is Springsteen's The Wrestler?)
J: Jai Ho from Slumdog Millionaire (even though it could go to Peter Gabriel's Down to Earth from WALL-E, which I love...and I also love an un-nominated song, Springsteen's The Wrestler)
Sound Editing
K: The Dark Knight
J: WALL-E
Sound Mixing
K: The Dark Knight
J: The Dark Knight
Visual Effects
K: Ben Button (Makes me want to puke...it should be Dark Knight)
J: Ben Button (I actually think this should go to Iron Man...but it's all about Button here)
Animated Short Film
K: Presto
J: This Way Up (My rule when predicting the short categories is to bet against the obvious...so while Presto has the Pixar prestige, that's enough for me to bet against it)
Live Action Short Film
K: Spielzeugland (Toyland) (They joke that "anything Holocaust...", but it's true)
J: Spielzeugland (Toyland) (What she said)
Documentary Short
K: The Witness: From the Balcony of Room 306
J: The Witness: From the Balcony of Room 306
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