When J and I watched the Golden Globes and Kate Winslet won both categories, best supporting actress and actress, I screamed aloud in total joy. She is by far my favorite actress and her wins are long overdue. Two. Wow. Exciting and frankly, appropriate.
I saw on our blog that J has changed his opinion on Winslet for what may happen Oscar night, and I hope he is right. If she were to win two Oscars, it will be unprecedented and perfect. Maybe that is the Obama influence this Oscar year--a year for first times.
I am going against all supposed logic here and I do not think one critic or blogger has said this yet, but what if she walks away with... none.
My thinking is that she will either get both or none. Conventional wisdom says she will walk with one, and before the Golden Globes last week, that one was suppose to be for The Reader. After she won both at GG, both movies are front and center for her accomplished work.
Now, voters will have 4 choices. Winslet for both films, Winslet for The Reader, Winslet for Revolutionary Road, or Winslet for none. I will argue here that her chances are better to win both than to win one over the other, but sadly she may be most angled to lose both. Part of the reason for that claim is that both categories this year are full of really wonderful other actresses with really great performances(Winslet is still my fave though) and the other reason is because many people may not think any actor/actress should win two and will have to choose. The choosing is where it gets tricky. If she had only won for The Reader, I would say we would see that happen again for Oscar night. However, by winning for both, the Academy will feel more pressure for both films and that could possibly split her votes. EEK.
In a year like say 2003 when Charlize Theron had the stand-out role and no one doubted she would win and win hard, if she had been nominated for another film for best supporting at the same time, it would be clear which movie the academy would have chosen their votes to go toward.
So, we have a set of people who will find voting for her twice unfair. We have a set of people who feel she deserves Best Actress status and others who feel that The Reader was the performance to win (should have been "best actress" actually). These people who will not vote for both, will choose one and thus split the votes.
In another year, if the actresses were less known, or not in as strong of roles etc., one of her categories could still win, but we do have really superb performances in both of the categories; tough competition from Hawkins, Streep, Hathaway in Best Actress and Cruz and Tomei for Best Supporting. There is no clear "stand out and alone" actresses this year and that helps siphon votes away from our Kate Winslet if someone feels they have to choose.
So, it is my view that she could win really huge or most possibly lose huge. I don't think there will be any middle ground for Winslet.