Monday, January 26, 2009

The Oscar Race--First Post-Nom Charts

Everything is narrowed down to five...and really, everything is narrowed down to two--at most.

Here's where it stands...

BEST PICTURE
1. Slumdog Millionaire
2. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
3. Frost/Nixon
4. Milk
5. The Reader

Note: Slumdog just can't stop winning awards. At this point, if it didn't win, it would be as big an upset as Brokeback Mountain in 2006. But don't expect to be surprised.

BEST DIRECTOR
1. Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
2. David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
3. Gus Van Sant, Milk
4. Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
5. Stephen Daldry, The Reader

Note: Boyle wins...no matter what.

BEST ACTRESS
1. Kate Winslet, The Reader
2. Meryl Streep, Doubt
3. Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
4. Melissa Leo, Frozen River
5. Angelina Jolie, Changeling

Note: Winslet and Streep, neck-and-neck. Hard telling. My money's on Winslet for now, since this Reader performance has been the most honored of the year when you consider the fact that it has garnered both lead and supporting awards.

BEST ACTOR
1. Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
2. Sean Penn, Milk
3. Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
4. Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
5. Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Note: Another two-person race. I still have a feeling about Mickey, though.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
2. Viola Davis, Doubt
3. Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
4. Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
5. Amy Adams, Doubt

Note: With Winslet out of the mix, Penelope Cruz is likely back in the top spot. It's been about five months since Vicky Cristina Barcelona was released and Cruz picked up very early "Oscar Frontrunner" status, so that heat sure seems to have faded...but who's gonna beat her?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
2. Josh Brolin, Milk
3. Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
4. Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
5. Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder

Note: Is it even worth discussing?

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
2. John Patrick Shanley, Doubt
3. Eric Roth, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
4. David Hare, The Reader
5. Peter Morgan, Frost/Nixon

Note: Beaufoy is your winner.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Andrew Stanton and Jim Reardon, Wall-E
2. Dustin Lance Black, Milk
3. Martin McDonaugh, In Bruges
4. Courtney Hunt, Frozen River
5. Mike Leigh, Happy Go Lucky

Note: Another category that's down to two: Wall-E v. Milk. I think it's the robot's award to lose.


2 comments:

Stella said...

And here's what I want to win (but I'm usually wrong with these things...)

BEST PICTURE: Frost/Nixon

BEST DIRECTOR: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire

BEST ACTRESS: Meryl Streep, Doubt

BEST ACTOR: Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

(Yes, rough choice, but Rourke played the role perfectly.)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight

No question.


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Peter Morgan, Frost/Nixon

Won't win, but such a great movie.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Dustin Lance Black, Milk

And best music...Peter Gabriel for Wal-e...

Just had to get away from politics. I know "Slumdog Millionaire" will sweep just about everything, but I loved Frost/Nixon and Doubt. How are you J? And K? My best to you both.

J McKiernan said...

Hey, you can never be wrong when stating your own opinion. Predicting what the Academy will pick can be a guessing game, but you can't go wrong simply by saying what you'd like to see happen. It is always interesting to isolate individual opinions, because they are always very interesting when viewed apart from the "collective" decision.

In addition to the usual predictions, we will post our own 'What We'd Like to See' picks as the 22nd draws closer.